What Is Shaping Africa’s Economic Front This Wednesday?

Wednesday, 14 October 2026 | Dangote reported a $4.73bn nine-month profit and gave investors two more weeks to buy into Africa's largest share sale. In Bangkok, the IMF raised its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.5% while cutting the outlook for nearly half the world's economies. Tanzania's finance minister said the $42bn LNG deal is "almost there".

NIGERIA | DANGOTE EARNS MORE IN ONE QUARTER THAN IN THE WHOLE FIRST HALF

Dangote Petroleum Refinery made a net profit of $4.73bn in the nine months to September, against a loss of $117.2m a year earlier, according to unaudited results the company released on Tuesday. Revenue rose 144.47% to $22.48bn from $9.19bn as the refinery reached its full capacity of 700,000 barrels a day. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to $5.52bn from $627.6m. The margin widened to 24.56% from 6.83%, so the refinery now keeps about a quarter of every dollar of sales as operating earnings. The company had reported a first-half profit of $1.82bn, which leaves about $2.9bn earned in the third quarter alone.

The results came out during the offer period. The refinery is seeking $1.6bn, rising to $2.1bn if an over-allotment option is used, in a share sale that values it at about $47bn and would be Africa’s largest. Citing strong investor interest across the continent, the company extended the deadline from 13 October to 27 October with approval from Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission. Nearly a fifth of the offer is set aside for East African investors, worth up to $300.4m if fully taken up.

PAN-AFRICA | AIRTEL MONEY STARTS FULL TRADING IN LONDON

Pan-Africa. Airtel Money, the mobile-money business of Airtel Africa, begins unconditional trading on the London Stock Exchange today at an offer price of £1.96 a share. That values the company at about £5.3 billion ($7 billion). No new money is being raised. Minority investors that bought in for a combined $550 million in 2021 are selling about £529 million ($703 million) of shares: TPG’s Rise Fund, Qatar Holding, Mastercard and Chimetech. Airtel Africa keeps 77.85%, and the IFC has agreed to buy up to £67.2 million ($90 million) as a cornerstone investor. A cornerstone investor commits to buy a set amount of shares before an offer opens, which gives other buyers confidence in the price.
Airtel Money operates in 13 sub-Saharan markets and had about 53 million monthly active users at the end of June. It earned net income of $373 million on revenue of $1.346 billion in the year to March 2026, according to the company. The listing price is below the $8 billion to $9 billion valuation discussed when the float was announced in September.

AFRICA | IMF RAISES AFRICA’S FORECAST AS IT CUTS MUCH OF THE WORLD’S

The IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa to grow 4.5% in 2026, up from the 4.3% it forecast in July, according to the World Economic Outlook it released in Bangkok on Tuesday. The Fund forecasts world growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027. It raised Nigeria’s forecast to 4.2% from 4.1%, citing steadier macroeconomic conditions and better terms of trade, and trimmed South Africa’s to 1.0% from 1.1%.

The upgrade for Africa comes as the Fund has cut forecasts for 47% of the world’s economies since April. It now finds 32 countries producing 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April. The outlook assumes oil averages $96 a barrel this year. Under the Fund’s adverse case of $130 oil into early 2027, global growth would be 0.5 percentage points lower next year, with oil-importing economies hit hardest.

TANZANIA | $42BN LNG DEAL “ALMOST THERE”, SAYS FINANCE MINISTER

Tanzania is close to finalising its $42bn liquefied natural gas project with a consortium led by Equinor and Shell, Finance Minister Khamis Mussa Omar said on Tuesday. “It’s almost there,” he said. Exxon Mobil, Pavilion Energy, Medco Energi and the state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation are also partners. The project would develop 47.13 trillion cubic feet of gas, mostly for export, with some supplied to the domestic market.

Officials had expected to sign before June. The project stalled when Tanzania sought changes to terms agreed in 2023, and no final investment decision has been taken. Omar said official development aid is now a “very, very negligible” share of the TSh62.3tn ($23.7bn) budget, two-thirds of which is funded domestically. Tanzania’s $1.7bn IMF programme ended in July, and the government expects to decide by June whether to seek a new one.

SOUTH AFRICA | MINING OUTPUT FALLS 12.7% AND GOLD SALES HALVE

South Africa’s mining production fell 12.7% in August from a year earlier, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday, deeper than July’s revised 7.0% fall. Platinum group metals fell 22.5% and took 6.1 percentage points off the total. Coal fell 11.7% and iron ore 16.2%. Chrome and manganese were the only positive contributors.

Sales fell further than output. Mineral sales dropped 15.1% at current prices. Gold sales fell 48.6% and accounted for 8.6 percentage points of that decline. With factory output also down in August, the figures point to a weak third quarter after second-quarter GDP shrank 0.2%. The Minerals Council says fuel, electricity, freight and chemical costs remain high. After the release, the rand traded near R16.51 to the dollar.

UGANDA | CENTRAL BANK MEETS IN EMERGENCY SESSION AS SHILLING PASSES USh4,000

The Bank of Uganda has called an emergency Monetary Policy Committee meeting for Wednesday after the shilling set a series of record lows this month. On 5 October commercial banks quoted the shilling above USh4,000 to the dollar for the first time, compared with about USh3,600 in March. The central bank says it does not target an exchange rate but will act to limit excess volatility.

The weaker currency is already showing up in prices. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics reported that annual inflation rose to 4.7% in September from 4.1% in August, and food crop inflation more than doubled to 4.5%. The bank held its policy rate at 9.75% in August and forecast inflation of 5.5% to 6% over the next year. It enters the meeting with reserves up 56% to $6.7bn, equal to 3.7 months of imports, short of its four-month target.

SENEGAL | BONDHOLDERS HIRE AN ADVISER AS G24 SAYS A DEAL IS CLOSE

Holders of Senegal’s international bonds have appointed Alvarez & Marsal as financial adviser for their talks with the government, according to three people familiar with the matter. On the same day in Bangkok, Iyabo Masha, director of the Group of 24 developing countries, said Senegal is “quite close” to a final resolution with its creditors. The G24 coordinates developing countries’ positions at the IMF and World Bank.

Taiwo Oyedele, Nigeria’s finance minister and G24 chair, said developing countries pay about $500bn a year more for their debt than developed countries, and named Africa as an example. Senegal reached a staff-level agreement on a $2.2bn IMF programme on 1 September; it still needs Board approval. Senegal has also said it will seek external debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework, which brings official lenders such as China and Paris Club members together to restructure debt.

ETHIOPIA | BANKS OVERSUBSCRIBE THE DOLLAR AUCTION AGAIN

Ethiopian banks bid $152.09m for the $140m the National Bank of Ethiopia offered at Tuesday’s foreign exchange auction. Twenty-six of the 29 banks that bid won allocations, at a weighted average of 160.11 birr per dollar. At the previous auction, bids of $123.49m fell short of the $125m on offer.

Tuesday’s sale was the first under the central bank’s expanded schedule for October to December, which raises supply to $840m across six fortnightly auctions. The central bank has moved from occasional large sales, including $500m in a single day in August, to a regular calendar of smaller ones. The weighted average rate eased slightly from 160.23 birr. The cut-off rate, the lowest winning bid, rose to 158.17 birr. The next auction is on 27 October.

SOUTH AFRICA | THARISA HITS ITS TARGETS AS PLATINUM PRICES RISE

JSE-listed Tharisa produced 153,700 ounces of platinum group metals and 1.56 million tonnes of chrome concentrate in its financial year to September, in line with guidance, the company said on Tuesday. Its average PGM basket price rose to $2,607 an ounce from $1,615 a year earlier, a 61% increase. Tharisa guides 150,000 to 170,000 ounces for 2027.

Tharisa’s growth is coming from Zimbabwe. Ore mining at its Karo platinum project on the Great Dyke begins this month under a 25-year lease. First ore is due at the mill in the fourth quarter of 2027, with steady output of 220,000 to 230,000 ounces a year about six months later. The company has invested more than $240m in Karo and raised a further $300m in bonds in September. It has agreed to sell concentrate to Valterra Platinum for five years.

 KENYA | IMF TEAM DUE IN NAIROBI IN DECEMBER

Kenya expects an IMF mission in early December for its Article IV consultation, the National Treasury said after Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi met US Treasury official Eric Meyer in Bangkok. An Article IV consultation is the Fund’s regular review of a country’s economy and policies and carries no new lending. The last one completed was in January 2024.

Kenya has had no IMF programme since its $3.6bn arrangements expired in April 2025. Visits in late 2025 and early 2026 ended without a new agreement, and the domestic market has carried much of the borrowing since. Bond turnover on the Nairobi Securities Exchange passed KSh2.5tn ($19.2bn) by 9 October, against KSh2.71tn ($20.9bn) for all of 2025. Today the government opens bids for KSh50bn ($385m) of 30-year bonds.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Wednesday 14 October:

• The Bank of Uganda holds its emergency policy meeting.
• The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics releases second-quarter GDP; the economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter.
• Kenya’s KSh50bn ($385m) 30-year bond sale takes place.
• Airtel Money begins full trading in London.
• The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index launches in Bangkok.

Thursday 15 October: Nigeria’s September inflation figures; August was 15.39%.

Friday 16 October:

• Books close on Lagos State’s N200bn ($150m) bond.
• African Energy Week ends in Cape Town.

Sunday 18 October: The IMF and World Bank meetings close in Bangkok.

Later this month:

• 27 October: the Dangote offer closes and Ethiopia holds its next FX auction.
• 29 October: the Central Bank of Egypt sets interest rates.
• 30 October: the Quickmart IPO closes.

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