What Matters Across Africa

Africa gained its own credit rating agency on Wednesday, the same day Moody’s said the region’s governments are on firmer footing. The pressure points show up in the figures. Kenya will spend about a third of its revenue on interest, and fuel prices rose by double digits in South Africa as the rand and Uganda’s shilling weakened.

Sable | Thursday, 8 October 2026: Ten things moving African business and markets, and what to expect next. Five minutes.

1. AFRICA | AU LAUNCHES CREDIT RATING AGENCY FOR A CONTINENT WHERE 23 STATES HAVE NO RATING

The African Union Commission launched the Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) in Port Louis, Mauritius, on Wednesday. The agency will rate African governments, sub-national authorities and companies.
Its potential market is large. According to the AU, 23 of Africa’s 55 states, or 42%, carry no rating from any of the three largest global agencies. The AU says Africa’s external debt service rose from $61 billion in 2010 to $163 billion in 2024, which is 2.7 times as much. A credit rating is an independent grade of a borrower’s ability to repay, and investors use it to set the interest rate they demand.
The AU says AfCRA is private-sector driven, self-funded and independent, and governments are barred from owning shares. It is headquartered in Port Louis, with regional subsidiaries planned. The AU’s launch materials do not give a date for its first published rating.

2. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | MOODY’S TURNS POSITIVE ON REGION AS DEBT SET TO FALL BELOW 57% OF GDP

Moody’s raised its outlook for sub-Saharan African sovereigns to positive on Wednesday. It forecast that government debt across the region will fall to 56.6% of GDP in 2027, from 62.4% in 2025.
That drop of almost 6 percentage points in two years rests on reforms that helped governments absorb inflation, strong commodity prices and easier access to financing, Moody’s said. It expects annual borrowing needs to ease to 11.2% of GDP in 2027 from a peak of 12.3% in 2025. It sees Zambia and Ethiopia recording the largest debt reductions. A positive outlook signals that ratings are more likely to be raised than lowered.
Interest costs remain the heaviest burden. Moody’s projects that Kenya and Zambia will each spend about 35% of government revenue on interest in 2027, the highest share in the region. Of the 25 sovereigns it rates, eight carry positive outlooks and four negative, and two, Botswana and Mauritius, are investment grade.

3. KENYA | CBK HOLDS AT 8.75% WITH INFLATION 0.7 POINTS BELOW ITS CEILING

The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark rate at 8.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. Inflation rose to 6.8% in September, leaving 0.7 percentage points between it and the 7.5% upper limit of the central bank’s target range.
The Monetary Policy Committee said it would watch global oil prices for second-round effects, where a fuel price shock spreads into wages and other prices. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items, rose 0.6 percentage points in a single month to 4.0%, driven by milk, wheat products and edible oils.
Credit is moving in the other direction. Private-sector lending grew 10.6% in September, compared with a contraction of 2.9% in January 2025. Gross non-performing loans fell to 13.9% from 17.6% a year earlier, and the CBK raised its 2026 growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.9%.

4. KENYA | INFRASTRUCTURE FUND PUTS KES 340 BILLION INTO GOVERNMENT BONDS

Kenya’s National Infrastructure Fund is investing its KES 340 billion ($2.62 billion) seed capital in domestic government bonds, chief executive James Mworia said on Wednesday. It was the first account of how the fund will finance projects.
The amount is equivalent to about a third of the government’s domestic borrowing target for the fiscal year to June 2027, Mworia said. He said the purchases, which began in July, should free bank balance sheets for lending to businesses and households.
Mworia said the bond portfolio should yield about KES 42 billion ($324 million) a year, about 12% of the seed capital. That income is meant to support a target of mobilising KES 3.6 trillion ($27.7 billion) over the next decade, more than ten times the starting capital. The fund plans to take a stake in the refinery Dangote is building in Lamu.

5. EAST AFRICA | DANGOTE OFFERS NAIROBI INVESTORS NEARLY A FIFTH OF ITS IPO

Dangote Petroleum Refinery is offering East African investors up to KES 39 billion ($300.4 million) of shares, according to an information memorandum released on Wednesday. That is close to 20% of its target of at least $1.6 billion for the offer as a whole.
The shares will be sold as about 729 million Global Depositary Receipts at KES 53.50 ($0.41) each, with an application to list them on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Each receipt is a locally traded certificate representing one share in the Nigerian refinery. The minimum application of 2,000 receipts costs KES 107,000 ($824).
Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority approved the structure on Monday, and Uganda’s regulator has authorised promotion of the offer there. Applications close on 13 October, and allotment is expected around 12 November.

6. SOUTH AFRICA | BATTERY STORAGE PLAN IS NINE TIMES WHAT THE GRID HAS TODAY

South Africa will prioritise 4.6 gigawatts of battery storage and 5 GW of gas-to-power in the first stage of its new procurement, Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said in a statement on Wednesday.
The country has five battery storage projects in operation, totalling 513 megawatts, so the planned storage is about nine times the current fleet. Ramokgopa said the extra storage would let the grid use wind and solar power now stranded by lack of transmission capacity. Batteries store electricity when supply is plentiful and release it when demand peaks.
The 5 GW of gas covers almost a third of the 16 GW of gas in the country’s Integrated Resource Plan to 2039. Four shortlisted consortia are being evaluated for a first 2 GW of gas-to-power projects.

7. SOUTH AFRICA | PETROL JUMPS 12% IN A MONTH TO A RECORD R30.25

Inland 95 petrol rose to a record R30.25 ($1.81) a litre on Wednesday, an increase of R3.33, or 12%, under the monthly adjustment set by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. Diesel rose R3.24 to R33.29 ($1.99).
Petrol has risen more than R4 a litre since July, when the department cut the inland price to R26.10 and phased out the temporary fuel levy relief.
The rand fell 1% on Wednesday to R16.70 to the dollar as Brent crude held above $100 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 2035 government bond rose 4.5 basis points to 8.85%. A rising yield means the government pays more to borrow.

8. UGANDA | SHILLING SLIDES 11% SINCE MARCH AS MINISTERS URGE FUEL RATIONING

Uganda’s government asked citizens on Wednesday to cut unnecessary travel and pool cars. Defence minister Kiryowa Kiwanuka told Parliament the country should consider austerity in fuel use because it produces none of its own.
The shilling has weakened about 11% against the dollar since March, from about USh 3,604 to a bank selling rate of about USh 4,055 on 6 October. Pump prices in parts of Kampala are approaching USh 7,000 ($1.73) a litre.
The Bank of Uganda said the exchange rate is market-determined and that it has tools to manage excessive volatility. It raised banks’ cash reserve requirement to 11% from 9.5% in May, which reduces the money banks have available to lend.

9. EGYPT | RESERVES HIT RECORD $57.35 BILLION AS CURRENCY INFLOWS OUTPACE A FALL IN GOLD

Egypt’s net international reserves rose for a ninth consecutive month to a record $57.35 billion in September, according to provisional Central Bank of Egypt data.
The monthly gain was a modest $133 million, and it came from two opposing moves. Foreign currency holdings rose $1.74 billion, while the value of gold reserves fell $1.6 billion. Net international reserves are the foreign currency, gold and IMF drawing rights a central bank holds to pay for imports and service external debt.
Reserves have risen $5.9 billion since the end of 2025, an average of about $650 million a month.

10. GHANA | INFLATION RISES FOR A SECOND MONTH BUT STAYS BELOW TARGET FLOOR

Ghana’s annual inflation rose to 5.2% in September from 5.0% in August, the second consecutive increase, the Ghana Statistical Service said on Wednesday.
The rate is 0.8 percentage points below 6%, the lower edge of the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8% plus or minus 2 points. It has risen 2 points since March, when it bottomed at 3.2%.
The breakdown points to domestic sources. Services inflation of 8.3% ran at about twice the 4.2% rate for goods. Locally produced items accounted for 85.7% of overall inflation.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Thursday, 8 October | Tanzania. The Bank of Tanzania publishes its Monetary Policy Committee statement, setting the Central Bank Rate for October to December. The rate stands at 6.25% after a half-point increase in July, which the bank tied to energy, fertiliser and transport costs. The statement will show whether that rise was a single move or the start of a tightening cycle.

Thursday, 8 October | Airtel Money. Institutional orders for the Airtel Money IPO close at 2pm London time and the UK retail offer at 5pm. The shares are priced at £1.96 ($2.59), valuing the mobile money business at about £5.3 billion ($7.0 billion). That is below the $8 billion to $9 billion range reported when the IPO was announced. All the shares on offer are existing ones, so the company raises no new capital. Full trading begins on the London Stock Exchange on 14 October, and the first-day price against £1.96 will be the measure of demand.

Tuesday, 13 October | Nigeria and East Africa. The Dangote refinery IPO closes, both the 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 in Nigeria and the receipts offered in Nairobi. At full subscription the offer raises about ₦2.15 trillion, or roughly $1.63 billion at the prospectus reference rate. The prospectus sets allotment results for 27 October, and the subscription level will be the headline.

15 and 29 October | Botswana. Statistics Botswana releases September inflation on 15 October; the August reading was 9.3%. The Bank of Botswana’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on 29 October.

3 November | South Africa. Sanlam and Santam expect to publish the circular for Sanlam’s R505 ($30.24) a share buyout of Santam’s minority shareholders around 3 November, with the scheme vote on or before 30 November. The offer is a 26.6% premium to Santam’s 2 October close of R399.

Sable Daily brings together the developments shaping Africa’s businesses, markets, and economies, so you can stay informed and make sense of what is happening across the continent.