South Africa. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tables the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement in Parliament on Wednesday, 21 October. The statement is a mid-year update of the February budget, revising forecasts for revenue, spending and debt.
Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services, estimates tax revenue could exceed the February forecast by R50 billion ($3 billion) or more. He expects the extra to come from mining taxes, income tax and VAT, and the budget deficit to narrow to about 3.5% of GDP from the 4% projected in February.
The extra revenue comes while the economy is weak. Mining output fell 12.7% year on year in August, after a 7.0% decline in July, according to Statistics South Africa. Platinum group metals fell 22.5%. The IMF expects growth of 1% in 2026, less than a quarter of the regional rate.
September inflation is also released on Wednesday morning, after 4.4% in August. Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said in Bangkok last week that inflation will average 4.4% this year and return to the bank’s 3% target only in 2028.
NIGERIA | INFLATION FALLS AS DANGOTE OFFER ENTERS FINAL WEEK
Nigeria. Inflation fell to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. It was the third straight monthly decline. Prices rose 0.06% on the month, down from 0.71% in August.
Core inflation, which leaves out farm produce and energy, rose to 1.11% on the month from -0.06%, even as the headline rate fell. The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its Monetary Policy Rate to 23% from 26.5% in September. That leaves a real interest rate, the policy rate minus inflation, of about 8.4%.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s share offer closes on 27 October after a two-week extension. The refinery is selling 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 (about $0.39) each, worth about $1.6 billion. Aliko Dangote has said subscriptions already exceed the original target.
Investors have until the close to weigh the nine-month profit of $4.73 billion the refinery reported on 13 October, against a loss a year earlier.
KENYA | QUICKMART OFFER ENTERS ITS LAST TWO WEEKS
Kenya. Quickmart’s share offer closes at 5pm on 30 October. The supermarket chain is selling 2 billion existing shares, half the company, at KSh7.50 (about $0.06) each. That is about KSh15 billion ($116 million), valuing the business at KSh30 billion ($231 million).
The seller is Sokoni Retail Kenya, so Quickmart itself raises no money. The offer goes ahead only if at least 75% of the shares are taken up. The IFC has conditionally committed up to $15 million as an anchor investor.
Results are due on 6 November and trading on the Nairobi Securities Exchange on 12 November. The listing follows Kenya Pipeline Company’s debut on the exchange in March.
The offer rests on household spending. Kenya’s economy grew 5.1% in the second quarter, up from 4.9% a year earlier, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. On Friday, President William Ruto signed a law keeping VAT on fuel at 8% instead of 16% for another 90 days. The previous cut had expired on 14 October.
PAN-AFRICA | BANGKOK ENDS WITHOUT A G20 STATEMENT; MINISTERS HEAD TO LONDON
Pan-Africa. The IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings closed in Bangkok on Saturday. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended their meeting on Thursday without a joint statement. The previous G20 finance meeting, in August, also ended without one, according to reports. The US holds the G20 presidency this year, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not attend.
African delegations focused on investment and IMF programmes. World Bank President Ajay Banga told the African caucus the Bank would work “with and through” the African Union. Nigerian Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso became chairman of the Africa Finance Corporation, and Nigeria presented 65 projects worth $78.5 billion to investors.
On 21 and 22 October, an Africa investment summit in London brings together Ghana’s President John Mahama, Ethiopia’s Finance Minister Ahmed Shide and ministers from South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire and the DRC. The agenda covers domestic capital, gold reserves, trade under tariffs and the Red Sea corridor.
The G20 leaders meet in Miami on 14 and 15 December.
ETHIOPIA | INFLATION EASES AS IMF REVIEW MOVES TO NOVEMBER
Ethiopia. Annual inflation eased to 14.9% in September from 15.1% in August, the second straight monthly fall. It is still well above the 9.7% of December 2025.
The National Bank of Ethiopia raised its policy rate to 16% from 15% in July, citing pressure from international oil prices. Governor’s statement at the time said the bank expected inflation to stay in double digits for six months.
The IMF’s sixth review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion loan programme moves to talks in November, with a board decision in early 2027, an IMF spokesperson said. The next payment is projected at about $210 million, about 20% less than first planned.
Finance Minister Ahmed Shide speaks at the London summit this week. Ethiopia’s restructuring of its $1 billion Eurobond, which it defaulted on in December 2023, depends on the IMF programme staying on track.
GHANA | MAHAMA IN LONDON AS THE 2027 BUDGET NEARS
Ghana. President John Mahama speaks at the London investment summit this week, after Ghana’s delegation used the Bangkok meetings to promote its “New Economy” programme. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has said the government plans about $10 billion of investment under the programme.
The 2027 budget is expected in the first week of November. The law requires it by 15 November.
Inflation rose to 5.2% in September from 5.0% in August, according to the Ghana Statistical Service. The IMF raised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.7% from 4.6% last week, citing gold earnings and fiscal discipline.
The Public Interest and Accountability Committee, which monitors oil revenue, expects 2026 petroleum receipts above $1 billion, up from the $985 million it projected in April.
MOROCCO | SEPTEMBER INFLATION DUE ON THURSDAY
Morocco. The High Commission for Planning publishes September consumer prices on Thursday, 22 October. Its latest outlook forecast a 0.3% fall in prices in the third quarter, with food prices dropping 3.6% after farm output grew 19.9%.
Among the economies Sable tracks, Morocco is the only one where prices are falling. Fuel is still lifting non-food prices by 2.4%, and the agency expects the dirham to weaken 3.8% against the dollar.
Bank Al-Maghrib has held its key rate at 2.25% for six straight quarters.
DRC | COBALT TRADERS WATCH FOR A QUOTA CUT
DRC. Cobalt traded at $39,140 a tonne on 29 September, about a third below its first-quarter level of nearly $58,000, as exports under the DRC’s quota system rose.
The regulator ARECOMS allows exports of 96,600 tonnes a year in 2026 and 2027, more than double the 44,333 tonnes shipped in 2025. It can adjust volumes every quarter. Its chairman, Patrick Mpoyi Luabeya, has said it may cut them if the market stays out of balance.
The DRC produces about 73% of the world’s mined cobalt, according to the Cobalt Institute.
Mining executives and officials meet at the Makutano Mining forum in Kinshasa from 22 to 25 November.
NIGER | 45 DAYS FOR CHINESE OIL COMPANIES TO BRING BACK $5 BILLION
Niger. Niger’s military government has given China National Petroleum Corporation and its partners 45 days to meet their contractual obligations, Foreign Minister Bakary Yaou Sangaré said on Friday. The partners are WAPCO, which runs the Niger-Benin export pipeline, and SORAZ, the Zinder refinery.
The government is demanding the companies repatriate more than FCFA3,000 billion (about $5 billion) of crude export revenue held outside the country. Repatriating the money means bringing it back into Niger’s banks.
Sangaré said the shortfall has cost the Treasury FCFA17.4 billion (about $29 million) and left Nigerien banks without significant deposits. Counted from Friday, the deadline falls at the end of November.
China is Niger’s main oil partner, and the pipeline through Benin is the country’s main export route.
GABON | SECOND EUROBOND IN THREE MONTHS
Gabon. Gabon raised $580 million on Wednesday through an eight-year Eurobond due in 2034, at a coupon of 9.375%, the finance ministry said. A Eurobond is a bond sold to international investors in a foreign currency, here US dollars.
Orders reached nearly $1 billion from more than 100 investors, almost twice the amount sold. The risk premium was about 0.5 percentage points lower than on Gabon’s $920 million bond in July, which carried the same coupon.
The ministry said the money will cover the state’s financing needs and lengthen the maturity of its debt. The new bond costs about $54 million a year in interest.
WHAT TO EXPECT
South Africa. On Wednesday, 21 October: the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, September inflation and August retail sales.
Pan-Africa. The Africa investment summit in London runs on 21 and 22 October.
Morocco. September inflation is due on Thursday, 22 October.
Nigeria. The Dangote refinery share offer closes on 27 October.
Kenya. The Quickmart offer closes on 30 October, with trading set for 12 November.
Ghana. The 2027 budget is due by 15 November.
Ethiopia. IMF talks on the sixth review are scheduled for November.
Niger. The 45-day deadline for Chinese oil companies ends at the end of November.
DRC. The Makutano Mining forum runs in Kinshasa from 22 to 25 November.
Pan-Africa. G20 leaders meet in Miami on 14 and 15 December.
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