Ten Things Moving African Business and Markets

ETHIOPIA | ADDIS ABABA OPENS A GOLD REFINERY BUILT FOR THE REGION

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed opened the National Precious Metals Refinery in the Bole Lemi Special Economic Zone on Saturday, 10 October. It is a joint venture between state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Dubai-based Sam Precious Metals, which state broadcaster Fana said hold 51% and 49%. Fana put capacity at more than 600 tonnes of precious metals a year. The plant will assay, refine and cast gold and silver into bars, and officials said neighbouring countries and regional miners will be able to send gold to Addis Ababa for refining and certification. Assaying is the testing that establishes how pure a piece of metal is, which determines the price a buyer pays.

Abiy said Ethiopia exported gold worth $5.6 billion to $6 billion last year. At about $4,460 an ounce, that is roughly 40 tonnes, so the refinery’s stated capacity is about 15 times the country’s own export volume, which is why officials have designed it to take in regional supply. Officials have not disclosed the plant’s cost or any supply agreements with other producers. Burkina Faso inaugurated its own Raffinor refinery in Ouagadougou on 28 September, with a stated initial capacity of 164 tonnes a year.

NIGERIA | FITCH MOVES OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE, KEEPS RATING AT B

Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on Nigeria’s long-term issuer default ratings to positive from stable on Friday, 9 October, and affirmed the ratings at B. The agency said the change reflects ongoing reform of Nigeria’s policy framework and its increased confidence that the momentum will not be disrupted by the general election due in early 2027. An outlook signals the direction a rating may move over the next one to two years. A positive outlook means an upgrade is possible but has not happened.

Fitch cited foreign reserves of $54.9 billion as of 25 September, up from about $32 billion in mid-April 2024, and crude production averaging 1.52 million barrels a day since May, above Nigeria’s OPEC target. It forecasts growth of 4.3% in 2026. It also expects average inflation of 15.4% this year, against a median of 5.6% for B-rated countries, and a fiscal deficit widening to 3.6% of GDP from 3.1%. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the action follows S&P’s upgrade to B in May and Moody’s move to a positive outlook in August.

PAN-AFRICA | DANGOTE EXTENDS ITS OFFER AS AFRICAN LISTINGS STACK UP

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has extended its initial public offering, originally due to close on 13 October, to let investors from other African countries take part. A company executive and an adviser on the deal told Reuters on 12 October the extension would run about 10 days. A revised timetable reported in Lagos on 13 October puts the close at 27 October, with results by 3 November. The offer of 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 each (about 39 US cents) is worth about ₦2.15 trillion ($1.6 billion). Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority has approved participation through depositary receipts on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, and Uganda has opened the offer to wealthy and professional investors. A depositary receipt is a certificate traded on a local exchange that represents shares listed elsewhere.

The extension comes as other African-facing companies go to market. Airtel Money began trading in London on 9 October after raising about $703 million at £1.96 a share. Nigerian fintech OPay filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 9 October for a New York listing, reporting first-half revenue of $467.1 million against $197.5 million a year earlier, with Nigeria contributing 89.5%. OPay’s board has also approved a later secondary listing on the Nigerian Exchange.

KENYA | MICROSOFT TELLS NAIROBI ENGINEERING STAFF THEIR CENTRE IS CLOSING

Microsoft informed employees at its Africa Development Centre in Nairobi on Monday, 12 October, that the engineering centre will close, staff told CIO Africa and tech-ish. A Microsoft spokesperson described the move as proposed changes linked to global restructuring that have affected its engineering department in Kenya. The spokesperson said the company will continue operating in the country and supporting customers, but did not say how many jobs are affected or when they end. ICT Cabinet Secretary William Kabogo said Microsoft had briefed him and that he pressed the company to retain local talent and protect jobs at the centre.

The centre was announced in May 2019 as part of a $100 million investment across Nairobi and Lagos, and opened its Westlands offices in March 2022 with more than 450 full-time staff. That is the last headcount Microsoft has published. Its teams worked on sign-in and identity systems, Microsoft 365, Windows, security and developer tools for the company’s global products. Microsoft closed the Lagos engineering centre in May 2024, saying then that Nairobi was not affected, so Monday’s decision ends both of its original engineering hubs on the continent.

SOUTH AFRICA | TONGAAT HULETT TO LEAVE THE JSE WITH NOTHING FOR SHAREHOLDERS

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange said on 12 October it will remove sugar producer Tongaat Hulett from its list on 3 November, ending a listing that began in 1952. The exchange cited the prolonged suspension, the ongoing business rescue, extensive non-compliance with listing rules, no realistic prospect of restoring compliance, and the company’s own statement that no value is expected to accrue to shareholders. Tongaat said it has been unable to produce audited financial statements since entering business rescue in 2022, and its shares have not traded for four years. Business rescue is South Africa’s court-supervised process in which outside practitioners run a distressed company to try to save it or get creditors a better outcome than liquidation.

The rescue is meant to end with Tongaat’s businesses owned by Robert Gumede’s Vision consortium. Vision became the largest secured creditor by buying about R11.7 billion ($708 million) of debt owed to 13 banks. The state-owned Industrial Development Corporation is converting R2.5 billion ($151 million) of rescue funding into equity. Tongaat runs South Africa’s only white sugar refinery and is the only mill available to about 18,000 of the country’s 28,000 cane growers, according to SA Canegrowers.

EGYPT | FOOD PRICES LIFT MONTHLY INFLATION

Egypt’s annual headline inflation edged up to 12.8% in September from 12.7% in August, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics said on Saturday, 10 October. On a monthly basis, prices rose 1.5% in September after holding broadly flat in August, and urban vegetable prices jumped 15.1% in a single month. Urban inflation eased to 13.9% from 14.5%, its lowest reading since February. The headline index covers the whole country and the urban index covers cities only, so the two can move in opposite directions in the same month.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel costs were 29.6% higher than a year earlier. The Central Bank of Egypt held its overnight deposit rate at 19% on 24 September, about six percentage points above headline inflation. It projects inflation will reach its 7% target, plus or minus two points, in the second half of 2027.

RWANDA | INFLATION AT THREE TIMES TARGET AS IMF TALKS OPEN IN BANGKOK

National Bank of Rwanda Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye and finance ministry officials met IMF African Department Director Zeine Zeidane on Monday, 12 October, on the first day of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The talks covered growth, inflationary pressure and policy priorities, Kigali outlet Taarifa reported. They came two days after the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda said consumer prices rose 17.2% in the year to September, up from 15.7% in August and more than three times the central bank’s 5% medium-term target.

The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 8.75% in August, which is still about eight percentage points below inflation. IMF staff agreed the first review of Rwanda’s 38-month Extended Credit Facility in early October, which would release about $35.7 million once the board approves it. Because inflation broke through the range set in the programme, the board must first discuss the government’s response under a built-in consultation clause. The IMF puts first-half 2026 growth at 9.7% and expects 7.8% for the full year.

TANZANIA | REGULATOR BLOCKS SALE OF SONGO SONGO GAS OPERATOR

Tanzania’s Fair Competition Commission has prohibited the sale of Orca Energy’s Tanzanian business to Taifa Gas Tanzania, controlled by Rostam Aziz, and Amber Energy Investment, Orca said in a statement on 9 October. The commission gave no reasons. Orca had agreed in April to sell for a nominal $10, saying tax claims, licence uncertainty and other liabilities left the assets with no material value, and it says the deal has not been terminated.

The decision coincides with the expiry on 10 October of the field’s 25-year development licence. The energy ministry has proposed extending the licence to Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation and Orca’s operating unit, PanAfrican Energy, on new terms. PanAfrican rejected those terms on 9 October as uneconomic and said it will stop operating the facilities by 29 November. Songo Songo supplies about 54% of Tanzania’s daily gas output, piped 207 kilometres to power stations and factories in Dar es Salaam. It holds 293 billion cubic feet of proved and probable reserves, the industry measure of gas expected to be recovered with reasonable confidence.

MALI | DRAFT 2027 BUDGET CUTS FARM SUPPORT BY 41%

Mali’s draft 2027 budget cuts the agriculture ministry’s Rural Support Programme by about 41.4%, from CFAF 64.40 billion ($110 million) to CFAF 37.73 billion ($64 million), Bamako newspaper Le Challenger reported on 12 October. Within the programme, transfers and subsidies to producers fall by more than half, from CFAF 54.54 billion ($93 million) to CFAF 24.29 billion ($41 million). Spending on rural land development and equipment rises 24.7% to CFAF 69.87 billion ($119 million) and becomes the ministry’s largest line.

The agriculture ministry’s total falls 6.3% to CFAF 127.92 billion ($218 million), while the overall budget adopted by the Council of Ministers on 18 September rises 11.75% to CFAF 4,462.6 billion ($7.6 billion). The government forecasts revenue of CFAF 3,866.6 billion ($6.6 billion), leaving a deficit of about CFAF 596 billion ($1.0 billion). The National Transitional Council must still vote on the draft before the budget year starts on 1 January.

ZAMBIA | IMF STAFF AGREE NEW CREDIT FACILITY

The International Monetary Fund said on Friday, 9 October, that its staff had reached agreement with Zambia on a new Extended Credit Facility. The Fund said the arrangement will support macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability, and the country’s balance of payments and budget financing needs. A staff-level agreement is the deal struck by IMF negotiators with a government; money is released only after the IMF’s Executive Board approves it.

Zambia’s previous $1.7 billion programme, which supported its recovery after it became the first African country to default during the pandemic, in 2020, expired in January. The new agreement comes as the finance ministry prepares the 2027 budget, with government spending projected to rise by 7%.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Tuesday, 13 October: Nigeria’s House of Representatives Public Accounts Committee continues questioning the Debt Management Office over the Auditor-General’s finding that borrowing between 2020 and 2024 exceeded approvals by ₦54.57 trillion (about $41 billion at current rates). The DMO disputes the approved-borrowing figures the Auditor-General used.

Wednesday, 14 October: The Environment and Land Court in Malindi hears 133 Chandavai residents’ claim to land earmarked for Dangote’s planned $15 billion to $16 billion Lamu refinery. Bids also close for the Central Bank of Kenya’s KSh50 billion (about $386 million) reopened Treasury bonds, with the auction on 19 October. South Africa’s SACCI business confidence index is due.

• Thursday, 15 October: Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics releases September inflation, after 15.39% in August.
• Through 18 October: The IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Bangkok.
• Tuesday, 20 October: MNT-Halan shares are due to begin trading on the Egyptian Exchange. Kenyan markets close for Mashujaa Day.
• Tuesday, 27 October: The Dangote refinery IPO is due to close under the revised timetable.
• Friday, 30 October: Quickmart’s KSh15 billion (about $116 million) Nairobi IPO closes, with trading due to start on 12 November.