The Sable Daily Brief | 2 November 2026

KENYA | INFLATION CLIMBS TO 7.3%, JUST UNDER THE TARGET CEILING

Kenya‘s annual inflation rose to 7.3% in October from 6.8% in September, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said on 30 October, the highest reading since July 2023. Food prices rose 10.2% over the year and transport costs 17.1%, and the bureau said food, transport, and housing and utilities, which together make up more than 57% of the consumer basket, drove the increase.

The figure sits 0.2 percentage points below the 7.5% ceiling of the Central Bank of Kenya’s 2.5% to 7.5% target range. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices to show underlying price pressure, rose to 4.3% from 4.0%, while non-core inflation reached 15.1% from 14.0%. The central bank held its benchmark rate at 8.75% on 7 October, when it said fuel subsidies and a temporary cut in value added tax on fuel would help keep inflation inside the range.

UGANDA | WEAKER SHILLING PUSHES INFLATION TO 5.8%

Uganda‘s annual headline inflation rose to 5.8% in October from 4.6% in September, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics said on 30 October, the fastest pace since June 2023. Inflation on food crops more than doubled to 10.7% from 4.5%, and energy, fuel and utilities inflation reached 15.4% from 14.4%. The bureau attributed the rise to the depreciation of the shilling and higher fuel prices, since a weaker currency raises the local cost of imported fuel, machinery and raw materials.

Core inflation rose to 4.4% from 3.7%, just under the Bank of Uganda’s 5% target. The central bank raised its policy rate by 2.25 percentage points to 12% at a special meeting on 14 October, its first change since October 2024, and said at the time that the weaker shilling was already lifting pump prices.

NIGERIA | DANGOTE REFINERY IPO CLOSES, ALLOTMENT UNDER WAY

Nigeria‘s Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals closed its initial public offering on 27 October, and its official IPO website says allotment is now in progress. The offer, first scheduled to close on 13 October, sought about ₦2.15 trillion ($1.6 billion) through the sale of 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 ($0.40) each, and the company said it drew applications from 120 countries, including all 54 African nations. Allotment is the stage at which the issuer and the Securities and Exchange Commission decide how many shares each applicant receives, which matters when demand exceeds the shares on offer.

The final amount raised has not yet been published. The refinery reported a net profit of $4.73 billion on revenue of $22.5 billion for the first nine months of 2026, against a loss of $117.2 million in the same period a year earlier. The company has said it expects the shares to list on the Nigerian Exchange before the end of 2026, and no first trading day has been set.

SENEGAL | REVISED BUDGET REJECTED AGAIN, IMF PROGRAMME WAITS

Senegal‘s National Assembly finance committee rejected the government’s revised 2026 budget again on 30 October, together with two government amendments, after the text was sent back to committee at the government’s request on 27 October. The revised budget carries measures agreed with the International Monetary Fund to unlock a proposed $2.2 billion, 36-month programme, which IMF staff agreed on 1 September and which still requires approval by the IMF Executive Board.

The ruling Pastef party, which holds 130 of the 165 seats, has objected to the text over household purchasing power, budget transparency and the management of special funds. The draft includes a cut of CFA 555 billion (about $960 million) in investment spending. The finance ministry said on 31 October that it regretted the decision and that it had answered lawmakers’ concerns in a 29-page response sent on 29 October. If the revised budget is not adopted, the initial 2026 budget stays in force without the measures negotiated with the IMF.

BOTSWANA | CENTRAL BANK HOLDS AT 5.5%, LIFTS PRIME RATE FREEZE

Botswana‘s central bank kept its Monetary Policy Rate at 5.5% on 29 October in a unanimous decision, and lifted a moratorium that had barred commercial banks from raising their prime lending rates. The Bank of Botswana said improving liquidity and lower funding costs should lead banks to cut prime rates now that the restriction is gone. A prime lending rate is the base rate banks use to price loans to their most creditworthy customers, so a change feeds directly into borrowing costs for households and businesses.

Inflation eased to 7.8% in September from 9.3% in August, still above the bank’s 3% to 6% objective range, and the bank expects it to average 8.1% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, returning to the range in the second quarter of 2027. The economy grew 3.7% in the twelve months to June 2026 after contracting 2.9% a year earlier, a recovery the bank attributed to stronger mining output, and the Ministry of Finance projects growth of 3.8% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. The final policy meeting of the year is on 3 December.

MOROCCO | LAPROPHAN CLEARED FOR CASABLANCA LISTING

Morocco‘s pharmaceutical group Laprophan received approval from the Moroccan Capital Market Authority on 28 October for its initial public offering on the Casablanca Stock Exchange, an operation worth up to MAD 2.22 billion (about $227 million). Shares are priced at MAD 341 (about $35), and subscriptions run from 9 to 17 November. About MAD 1.4 billion (about $143 million) of the total is a capital increase reserved for the public, meaning the company issues new shares and keeps the proceeds.

The company said the listing will fund its development and external growth, including a recent acquisition, and shares offered to the public will represent 37.64% of its capital. Founded in 1949, Laprophan runs four production sites in Casablanca and Aïn El Aouda in Morocco and in Manno, Switzerland. It would join Akdital, Sothema, Vicenne, Promopharm and T2S Group Holding among health and pharmaceutical companies listed in Casablanca.

ETHIOPIA | US CUSTOMS RELEASES ETHIOPIAN-MADE SOLAR CELLS

Ethiopia‘s solar exports to the United States moved forward on 29 October when Japanese manufacturer TOYO said US Customs and Border Protection had released shipments of solar cells made at its factory in Hawassa, after reviewing documents tracing the polysilicon and wafers used to make them. TOYO says its Ethiopian cells use polysilicon from the United States and Malaysia, and it operates 4 gigawatts of cell capacity in Hawassa.

A separate US Commerce Department inquiry, opened on 17 July, continues to examine whether cells and modules completed in Ethiopia with Chinese components are being used to avoid US duties on Chinese solar products. A coalition of US manufacturers requested the inquiry in May, naming TOYO and Origin Solar Manufacturing, and said US imports of Ethiopian solar products rose from zero in June 2025 to more than $300 million by the end of that year.

SOUTH AFRICA | EXPORTS TO CHINA UP NEARLY 25% UNDER DUTY-FREE ACCESS

South Africa‘s exports to China rose nearly 25% year on year to $5.3 billion between May and August, China’s ambassador Wu Peng said at a briefing in Pretoria, ahead of the country’s overall export growth of 17% over the same period. Imports from China rose 23% to $9.47 billion, and agricultural exports reached nearly $500 million, up more than 35%. The increase follows China’s zero-tariff scheme for qualifying exports from African countries with which it has diplomatic ties, which took effect on 1 May 2026 and runs until 30 April 2028.

The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition has said it wants duty-free access to continue beyond 2028 to give exporters certainty and protect jobs, and South Africa is pursuing longer-term access through the China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement. Even with the faster export growth, South Africa still imported from China almost $1.80 for every dollar it exported there over the four months.

GHANA | 2027 BUDGET SET FOR 12 NOVEMBER

Ghana‘s Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson will present the 2027 Budget Statement and Economic Policy to Parliament on 12 November, Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Nyarko Ampem announced on 29 October at the launch of the Ghana Statistical Service’s Ghana in Numbers report. He said the budget would set out the government’s New Economy agenda, which President John Dramani Mahama has linked to about $10 billion of investment. Ghana’s public financial management law requires the following year’s budget to be presented no later than 15 November.

The budget comes with inflation at 5.2% in September, up from a low of 3.2% in March and below 9.4% a year earlier, and with the Bank of Ghana’s policy rate at 14% after three consecutive holds.

EGYPT | SISI AND PUTIN REVIEW DABAA AND TRADE IN MOSCOW

Egypt‘s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 28 October on the sidelines of the third Russia-Africa Summit, where Putin said trade between the two countries was growing and construction of the El Dabaa nuclear power plant was on schedule. El Dabaa, Egypt’s first nuclear power plant, is being built by Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom under an agreement signed in December 2017.

Egypt accounts for about a third of Russia’s trade with Africa, according to Tatiana Dovgalenko, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for Partnership with Africa. The two governments are also developing a Russian Industrial Zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, for which they selected an industrial developer in July. The summit, attended by delegations from 48 countries, was due to close on 29 October with the adoption of a Russia-Africa Partnership Forum action plan for 2027 to 2029.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Monday, 2 November: October purchasing managers’ index readings are due for Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. The index surveys private companies on output, orders and hiring, and a reading above 50 signals expansion; September’s readings were 56.4 for Nigeria, 50.7 for South Africa’s Absa manufacturing index and 47.2 for Egypt.

Tuesday, 3 November: NCBA Group holds its annual Economic Forum in Nairobi, where the bank sets out its outlook for Kenya’s economy, days after October inflation came in at 7.3%.

Monday, 9 November: Subscriptions open for Laprophan’s Casablanca IPO, running to 17 November.

Tuesday, 10 November: Statistics South Africa is scheduled to publish its third-quarter labour force survey, after the official unemployment rate rose to 33.6% in the second quarter.

Thursday, 12 November: Ghana’s Finance Minister presents the 2027 budget to Parliament, and the Bank of Uganda holds its next scheduled policy meeting after October’s emergency increase to 12%.

In Nigeria, Dangote refinery investors await the published basis of allotment and a first trading date on the Nigerian Exchange.

Sable Daily brings together the developments shaping Africa’s businesses, markets, and economies, so you can stay informed and make sense of what is happening across the continent.