The Sable Daily Brief | 5 November 2026

ETHIOPIA | REBASED GDP PUTS ECONOMY AT $210.7 BILLION, WITH INDUSTRY AND INVESTMENT REWRITTEN

Ethiopia’s economy was worth 31.86 trillion birr ($210.7 billion) in the 2025/26 fiscal year under a revised national accounts series the government released on 4 November, with real growth estimated at 7.7%. The revision moves the base year for measuring output to 2024/25 from 2015/16. Rebasing means statisticians update the reference year and the list of activities they count, so the figures describe today’s economy rather than its shape a decade ago. Nominal output for 2024/25 now stands at 24.03 trillion birr ($201.42 billion), against 15.09 trillion birr under the old framework, an upward revision of about 59%, according to the Ministry of National Strategy’s report.

The largest revisions are in activities the old series measured thinly. The value of mining and quarrying was revised up 245% to 1.38 trillion birr ($11.6 billion), manufacturing rose 161% to 1.65 trillion birr ($13.8 billion), and electricity and water rose almost sixfold. Industry now accounts for 30.2% of output, against services at 35.9% and agriculture at 31.6%. The ministry’s figures also put investment at 35.3% of GDP, up from 20.1% under the old series, and domestic savings at 30.9%, up from 13.2%. The report says these changes measure existing activity more fully and are not growth that happened in a year.

A larger GDP base lowers every ratio measured against it. The ministry said tax revenue, which stood at close to 7% of GDP under the old series, could now fall below that level. Fitsum Assefa, the minister who presented the figures, said the series would inform debt sustainability assessments, fiscal and monetary policy and revenue planning. The release came a day after the National Bank of Ethiopia held its policy rate at 16%, with inflation at 14.9% in September. The bank also said the government had not borrowed directly from it for more than 27 months, the longest such stretch on record.

NAMIBIA | DANGOTE LAUNCHES $2.5 BILLION FUEL HUB EIGHT TIMES THE SIZE OF THE STATE RESERVE

Dangote Industries launched a $2.5 billion petroleum storage and regional pipeline project at Walvis Bay, Namibia’s main port, on 4 November, at a ceremony attended by President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. The project pairs a tank farm for petrol and diesel, which the company and the presidency put at 600 million litres, with a regional pipeline network of about 1,700 kilometres. A tank farm is a storage depot where imported fuel is held before distribution. Nandi-Ndaitwah called the launch “the most memorable day of my presidency.”

The planned storage is eight times the capacity of Namibia’s National Oil Storage Facility, also at Walvis Bay, which holds 75 million litres across seven tanks. The state operator NAMCOR says that facility, commissioned in February 2021, raised the country’s fuel cover from 7 to 10 days to 30 to 45 days if imports stop. Namibia has no refinery and relies on imported fuel. Company officials have said the pipeline would eventually link Walvis Bay to Botswana, Zimbabwe and Zambia, and potentially the Democratic Republic of Congo. All four are landlocked.

Namibia’s Cabinet approved the storage project in September 2025. The investment extends Aliko Dangote’s energy business beyond Nigeria, where he runs Africa’s largest refinery at 700,000 barrels a day, and Kenya, where he plans a refinery of the same size.

NIGERIA | INVESTORS BID ₦2 TRILLION FOR TREASURY BILLS AS GOVERNMENT HOLDS RATES BELOW THE POLICY RATE

Investors bid ₦2.04 trillion ($1.52 billion) at the Debt Management Office’s first Treasury bill auction of November on 4 November, about 2.6 times the ₦800 billion ($595 million) on offer. The government sold ₦509.4 billion ($379 million) and held stop rates at 15.40%, 15.79% and 15.80% for 91-, 182- and 364-day bills, unchanged from the 28 October sale. The stop rate is the highest rate the government accepts. Turning away three-quarters of the bids, as it did, keeps short-term borrowing costs from rising.

The one-year bill drew about 97.5% of all bids and accounted for ₦461.84 billion ($343 million) of the sale. Its 15.80% stop rate is a discount rate, which works out to a yield of about 18.8% for an investor who holds to maturity. That is below the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 23% policy rate, which the bank set on 22 September in a 350 basis point cut from 26.5%, and about 4.2 percentage points above annual inflation, which the National Bureau of Statistics put at 14.63% in September, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

With ₦872.55 billion ($649 million) of bills maturing the same day, the Treasury repaid about ₦363 billion ($270 million) more than it raised, leaving that cash in the banking system. The day before, the central bank absorbed ₦2.95 trillion ($2.19 billion) through an open market operation, its tool for draining excess cash from banks, against an offer of ₦1.5 trillion ($1.12 billion).

EGYPT | FOREIGN BUYING LIFTS EGX30 2.8% AS IMF FINAL REVIEW AND RECORD RESERVES FRAME THE MARKET

Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 rose 2.83% to 50,650.18 points on 4 November, according to exchange data. Non-Arab foreign investors were net buyers of EGP 6.31 billion ($114 million) of shares, and Egyptian investors were net sellers of EGP 6.53 billion ($118 million). Net buying means a group bought more shares than it sold over the session. The gain followed a 1.76% rise on 3 November and put the index about 4.6% above its 2 November close and back above its October close of about 49,600 points. The index fell 4.43% in October, its first back-to-back monthly loss of 2026.

The buying comes as an IMF mission in Cairo conducts the final review of Egypt’s loan programme, which ends on 15 December and could release about $2.3 billion on completion. On 1 November Egypt signed a $1 billion World Bank development policy loan tied to reforms of state-owned enterprises, competition rules and tax collection. The Central Bank of Egypt reported net international reserves at a record $57.35 billion at the end of September, up $5.9 billion in the first nine months of the year.

In late October the central bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points, its first increase since March 2024, lifting its main operation rate to 20.5%. Higher rates raise returns on Egyptian government debt, which competes with shares for investor money. Total market capitalisation reached EGP 3.99 trillion ($72.1 billion), with the pound at about EGP 55.3 to the dollar.

SOUTH AFRICA | 12 MILLION VOTE BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR COUNCILS WHERE ONLY 15% HAVE CLEAN AUDITS

South Africans voted on 4 November to elect municipal councils, the tier of government responsible for water, electricity distribution, refuse collection and local roads. The Electoral Commission of South Africa said about 12 million ballots had been cast by 5 p.m., about 41% of the more than 29 million registered voters, with four hours of voting left. More than 1.4 million special votes had been cast on 2 and 3 November. Early results from about 4% of voting districts showed turnout of about 48%, against about 46% in the 2021 municipal election.

The new councils take over local governments under financial strain. In her report on the 2024-25 audit cycle, tabled in June, Auditor-General Tsakani Maluleke found that 39 municipalities, or 15%, achieved clean audits, and that they managed R52.6 billion ($3.2 billion), about 8% of local government spending. A clean audit means financial statements, performance reporting and legal compliance all met the standard. She found 62 municipalities, or 24%, in a severe financial position, and recorded R36.05 billion ($2.17 billion) of unauthorised spending in the year across 177 municipalities.

Gauteng, the province that includes Johannesburg and Pretoria, recorded the most votes by late afternoon at about 3 million. The commission said 98% of the country’s 23,696 voting stations opened on time. The day was a public holiday, and the South African Reserve Bank was closed for trading and settlement.

KENYA | RUTO LINKS MILK SHORTAGES TO DEMAND AS PROCESSOR INTAKE FALLS AND PRICES RISE

President William Ruto said on 4 November that farmers now receive about KSh70 ($0.54) for a litre of milk, up from KSh32 ($0.25), while prices paid by consumers have changed little. Speaking at the Kenya Industrialisation Summit in Nairobi, he said annual milk production had risen to about 5.5 billion litres from about 4.6 billion, an increase of about a fifth, and linked empty supermarket shelves to higher demand from newly employed Kenyans, including workers on affordable housing projects. David Ndii, who heads the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, gave the same explanation at the NCBA Economic Forum on 3 November.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data show both rising supply and a recent squeeze. Milk delivered to formal processors passed 1 billion litres in 2025, up 11.5% from 909 million litres in 2024, according to the Economic Survey 2026. Monthly deliveries have since fallen, from 88.9 million litres in May to 77.1 million litres in August. In the bureau’s September price data, the retail price of fresh packaged milk was up 6% and long-life UHT milk was up 8%.

On 20 October, Ruto announced a farmgate price of KSh65 ($0.50) a litre plus a quarterly bonus of KSh2 ($0.02). The farmgate price is the amount processors pay farmers. The state processor New KCC reported a net loss of KSh953 million ($7.3 million) in its last financial year and received a KSh2.4 billion ($18.5 million) government grant, according to filings released in May.

GHANA | INFLATION RISES TO 5.5% AS SERVICES PRICES CLIMB, STILL BELOW THE TARGET BAND

Ghana’s annual inflation rose to 5.5% in October from 5.2% in September, the Ghana Statistical Service said on 4 November. It was the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest reading in 11 months. Annual inflation measures how much the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services has changed over the previous 12 months. Month on month, consumer prices fell 0.1% in October. A year earlier, in October 2025, annual inflation stood at 8.0%.

The increase came from outside food. Non-food inflation rose to 7.9% from 6.2%, and non-food items accounted for about three-quarters of October’s inflation, according to the statistics service. Food inflation eased to 2.8% from 4.0%. Services inflation rose to 11.5% from 8.3%, with transport among the main drivers.

Headline inflation remains below the lower end of the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The bank held its policy rate at 14% for a third straight meeting in September, 8.5 percentage points above October’s inflation rate. That gap is the real policy rate, the return on central bank money after inflation. The cedi traded at GH¢11.6542 to the dollar on the bank’s interbank market on 4 November, unchanged from the previous day.

AFRICA | IFC BUYS INTO ACCESS HOLDINGS AND SUNU BANKING ARM AS LENDERS SIGN DEALS IN LUANDA

The International Finance Corporation, the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, signed an equity investment in Access Holdings on 4 November at the Africa Financial Summit in Luanda, and took a stake in SUNU Investment Holding, the holding company for the SUNU group’s banks. Neither the size of the investments nor the stakes were disclosed. IFC said the Access deal would channel more financing to businesses across the continent. Access chairman Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede said it strengthens the group’s capital base.

Access Holdings, the Lagos-listed parent of Access Bank, reported profit after tax of ₦266.7 billion ($198 million) for the six months to June 2026, up 23.5% from ₦215.9 billion a year earlier, according to its filing with the Nigerian Exchange. Total equity stood at ₦4.57 trillion ($3.4 billion). Impaired loans rose to 3.34% of gross risk assets from 2.68%, a measure of the share of the loan book borrowers are struggling to repay.

At the same summit, Proparco, the French development finance institution, and the European Union announced a $10 million Impact+ portfolio guarantee for Ecobank RDC to expand lending to small businesses in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A portfolio guarantee covers part of the losses on a pool of loans, which lets a bank extend credit to smaller borrowers it would otherwise treat as too risky.

TANZANIA | DSE PROFIT JUMPS 164% AS EQUITY TURNOVER MORE THAN TRIPLES

Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange PLC, the listed operator of Tanzania’s stock market, reported on 4 November that profit after tax for the nine months to September rose 164% to TZS 11.48 billion ($4.35 million). Total income rose 95.9% to TZS 24.41 billion ($9.24 million). Transaction fees, which rise with trading volumes, became the largest income line, up 180.8% to TZS 8.07 billion ($3.05 million). Equity turnover in the third quarter reached TZS 824.1 billion ($312 million), 3.3 times the level a year earlier.

Other non-core income rose more than twentyfold to TZS 6.48 billion ($2.45 million), which accounts for about half of the TZS 11.95 billion ($4.52 million) increase in total income. Earnings per share rose to TZS 482 ($0.18) from TZS 183 ($0.07), and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 50.7% from 62.5%.

The results track a rally across the market. The DSE All Share Index closed September at 4,654.42 points, up 86.9% from a year earlier and 68.5% above its end-2025 level, and market capitalisation reached TZS 40.57 trillion ($15.36 billion). The exchange listed its second exchange-traded fund in January, and three pan-African funds are due to list in January 2027.

MOROCCO | CASABLANCA REBOUNDS 2.25% AS MINING STOCKS RECOVER FROM INDEX-RULE SWING

The Casablanca Stock Exchange’s MASI index rose 2.25% to 16,760.33 points on 4 November, recovering the previous day’s 0.76% fall, with mining stocks leading. Managem, the mining group, gained 5.11% to MAD 1,440 ($147) a share. The day before, its first session after a suspension, the stock had fallen 8.05%.

Managem asked for the suspension from 30 October, after the exchange’s annual revision of the MASI on 29 October pushed the stock to its 10% daily lower limit. The exchange’s index committee then restored, on a transitional basis, the free-float and capping factors used before the revision, and has published updated management rules for the index. Free float is the share of a company’s stock available to public investors. Because the MASI weights each company by it, a change in that factor shifts how much index-tracking funds must hold. Total market capitalisation stood at MAD 984.7 billion ($100.8 billion), on turnover of MAD 328.9 million ($33.7 million).

WHAT TO EXPECT

Kenya: The Central Bank of Kenya holds a switch auction on 9 November, letting holders of bond FXD1/2023/005 and three maturing Treasury bill issues exchange them for FXD4/2019/010, which carries a 12.28% coupon and matures in November 2029. The same day, bonds sold at the 4 November auction settle and begin trading. At that auction the bank accepted KSh70.86 billion ($545 million) against an offer of KSh50 billion ($385 million), with the 30-year bond clearing at 14.13%.

Egypt: The IMF’s final review of Egypt’s programme is due for completion before the arrangement ends on 15 December.

Uganda: The Bank of Uganda is temporarily closing its Real-Time Gross Settlement and Automated Clearing House systems, which banks use to settle large-value and bulk payments, from 5 to 8 November.

South Africa: The Electoral Commission continues releasing municipal results as counting proceeds.

Ghana: The Bank of Ghana unveils its Heritage Series banknotes on 12 November.

Zambia: The Bank of Zambia announces its next policy rate decision on 27 November. The rate is at 10.75% after a 250 basis point cut on 30 September, and annual inflation rose to 6.3% in October from 6.1% in September.

Sable Daily brings together the developments shaping Africa’s businesses, markets, and economies, so you can stay informed and make sense of what is happening across the continent.