What Matters Across Africa

UGANDA | CENTRAL BANK RAISES RATES BEFORE OIL REACHES PRICES

Uganda. The Bank of Uganda raised its Central Bank Rate to 12% from 9.75% on Wednesday, an increase of 225 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.

Headline inflation was 4.6% in September, below the 5% target, which leaves a real interest rate of about 7.4%. The bank expects inflation to average 7% to 7.5% over the next 12 months.

The current account deficit widened by $1.4 billion to $4.6 billion in the 12 months to August. Most of the increase came from higher freight and insurance costs after the Middle East conflict disrupted shipping.

Those costs reach import bills before shop prices, which is why the bank moved early. First crude exports through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline are expected in December.

PAN-AFRICA | CARDOSO TAKES THE CHAIR AT AFRICA FINANCE CORPORATION

Pan-Africa. Nigerian Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso was named chairman of the Africa Finance Corporation’s board on Wednesday. Chief executive Samaila Zubairu announced the appointment in Bangkok.

The AFC was set up in 2007 by African states to finance infrastructure. It has 48 member countries and has invested more than $19 billion across 36 of them.

Cardoso succeeds Ireti Samuel-Ogbu and is the sixth Nigerian to chair the board. He takes over as the AFC pushes African pension funds and insurers to finance the continent’s infrastructure under its plan, “The Africa We Build 2050”.

He will now chair a pan-African lender while running the central bank of the continent’s largest oil producer. His own country took 65 projects worth $78.5 billion to investors on the same day.

PAN-AFRICA | AIRTEL MONEY LISTS IN LONDON AT HALF ITS PARENT’S VALUE

Pan-Africa. Airtel Money began unconditional trading in London on Wednesday at £1.96 a share, valuing it at about £5.3 billion ($7 billion). That is below the $8 billion to $9 billion discussed in September.

The company raised no new money. Investors that paid $550 million for 22.15% in 2021 sold about £529 million ($703 million) of shares, nearly tripling their money.

Mobile money produced about a sixth of Airtel Africa’s $6.4 billion revenue in the year to March 2026. Yet Airtel Money is valued at about half of its parent’s £10.5 billion ($14 billion) market value, which shows how differently markets price payments and telecoms.

Airtel Money earned $373 million with no external borrowing. Only about 16.5% of its shares will trade freely.

NIGERIA | A $78.5 BILLION PITCH AND A PRODUCTION GAP

Nigeria. Nigeria presented 65 projects needing $78.5 billion of capital to investors at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Wednesday. Oil, gas and power make up 25 of them.

The government estimates the projects would create about 366,763 jobs, or about $214,000 of capital per job.

Cardoso said Nigeria aims to raise oil output to three million barrels a day. Output has been about 1.5 million barrels a day for most of this year, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, so the target means doubling it.

He also set a growth target of 7% by 2027 or 2028. The IMF forecasts 4.2% for this year.

DRC | COBALT FALLS ABOUT A THIRD AS QUOTAS LET SUPPLY BACK IN

DRC. Cobalt traded at $39,140 a tonne on 29 September, down about 30% in a month. It had been near $58,000 in the first quarter, according to the International Energy Agency.

The DRC produces about 73% of the world’s mined cobalt. When it banned exports in February 2025, prices were near a nine-year low of about $22,000; the ban more than tripled them.

The quota that replaced the ban allows 96,600 tonnes a year, more than double the 44,333 tonnes exported in 2025. Exports rose in the second quarter, and prices fell.

The regulator ARECOMS has said it may cut volumes. Indonesia, whose output rose 29% last year, now supplies 14% of world cobalt and gives Chinese refiners another source of supply.

SOUTH AFRICA | MINING OUTPUT FALLS 12.7% AND WEIGHS ON GROWTH

South Africa. Mining production fell 12.7% year on year in August, the steepest drop since October 2022, according to Statistics South Africa.

Platinum group metals, the largest mining export by value, fell 22.5%. Iron ore fell 16.2% and coal 11.7%.

The fall comes with gold above $4,100 an ounce and copper near record highs. Mining also contracted in July, so it is likely to weigh on third-quarter GDP after the economy shrank 0.2% in the second quarter.

The IMF cut South Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 1% this week, against 4.5% for the region.

ETHIOPIA | IMF REVIEW SLIPS AND THE NEXT INSTALMENT SHRINKS

Ethiopia. The IMF’s sixth review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion Extended Credit Facility will move to talks in November, with a board decision in early 2027.

An Extended Credit Facility is an IMF loan paid in instalments after each review confirms targets are met. The next instalment is projected at about $210 million, about 20% less than first planned.

The programme supported the birr float in July 2024, when the currency traded at about 57 to the dollar. It traded at about 160 at Tuesday’s central bank auction.

Ethiopia’s restructuring of its $1 billion Eurobond, which it defaulted on in December 2023, depends on the programme. The delay pushes those talks back too.

GHANA | OIL WINDFALL AT HOME, HIGHER FUEL BILL AT THE PORT

Ghana. Ghana’s Public Interest and Accountability Committee, which monitors oil revenue, said on Wednesday that 2026 petroleum receipts are on course to exceed $1 billion. It had projected $985 million in April.

The committee credited higher crude prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Ghana produced about 100,000 barrels a day in 2025.

Ghana remains a net importer of fuel, so the same price rise also lifts its import bill. Gold carries more weight.

The IMF raised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.7% from 4.6% this week, citing gold earnings and fiscal discipline.

EGYPT | CAIRO PUTS $100 MILLION INTO UPSTREAM NILE PROJECTS

Egypt. Egypt has set up a $100 million fund for projects in Nile Basin countries, Water Minister Hani Sewilam said in Berlin on Wednesday.

Egypt is backing financing for 36 projects in hydropower, power lines and water supply in the southern Nile Basin states.

Egypt draws nearly all of its fresh water from the Nile. It has opposed the way Ethiopia fills and runs the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was inaugurated in September 2025.

Funding projects upstream gives Cairo a say in how future infrastructure on the river is built.

MOROCCO | FALLING PRICES DURING AN ENERGY SHOCK

Morocco. Morocco’s planning agency expects consumer prices to fall 0.3% in the third quarter, while the economy grows 4.1%, according to its outlook published on Wednesday.

Food prices are forecast to drop 3.6% as agriculture grows 19.9% after several drought years. Cheaper olive oil alone takes 1.1 percentage points off inflation.

The energy shock shows up instead in the trade balance. Import prices are rising faster than export prices, so trade takes 1.2 percentage points off growth.

The dirham is forecast to weaken 3.8% against the dollar. The central bank has held its rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight quarter.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Nigeria. September inflation figures are due on Thursday, 15 October, after 15.39% in August.

Kenya. The Africa Commerce and Industry Summit in Nairobi runs until Friday, 16 October.

Ethiopia. IMF talks on the sixth review are scheduled for November.

DRC. The Makutano Mining forum takes place in Kinshasa from 22 to 25 November.